Can China-Taiwan-US Tensions Cause the Third World War?

After Ukraine-Russia in Europe, Now it's China-Taiwan in Asia that is standing on the tip of war, but why?

After Ukraine-Russia in Europe, Now its China-Taiwan in Asia who are standing on the tip of war and guess what? The US is already a part of it. To make it simpler, let us begin right from where it all started. Taiwan is an island, roughly 160 Kilometers from the coast of southeast China. Taiwan being a very small region is also significant for the world. Taiwan's economy is hugely important. Much of the world's everyday electronic equipment - from phones to laptops, watches, and game consoles - is powered by computer chips made in Taiwan. According to several sources a single Taiwanese company - the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company or TSMC - has almost half of the world's market.

Taiwan is also one of those territories that fall under the region which are “US Friendly” because of their policies related to foreign trade. However, Taiwan has always considered itself an independent separate nation, whereas China has always claimed it to be a part of its own territory. If China takes over Taiwan, some experts suggest it could be easier for China to project its power in the western Pacific region and could possibly even threaten US military bases based in Guam and Hawaii. This will possibly act as a big threat to America’s defense and security by one of its biggest rivals “China”. But China has mentioned that its intentions are purely peaceful, and they are doing nothing wrong as they consider “Taiwan” to be a part of their own territory.

However, Historical sources suggest that the island of Taiwan first came under full Chinese control in the 17th Century when the Qing dynasty began ruling it. Then, in 1895, they gave up the island to Japan after losing the first Sino-Japanese war with Japan. Later, China easily took back the island again in 1945 after Japan lost World War II. But a civil war inside China began in mainland China between nationalist government forces led by Chiang Kai-shek and a Communist Party led by Mao Zedong. The communists won the civil war in 1949 and took control of mainland China, ruling the capital in Beijing. Chiang Kai-shek and what was left of the nationalist party fled to Taiwan, where they started ruling for the next several decades. China points to this history to say that Taiwan was originally a Chinese region. But the Taiwanese point to the same history to argue that they were never part of the modern Chinese state that was first formed after the revolution in 1911 when China got freedom and became a democracy - or the People's Republic of China that was established in 1949 after the Civil war ended.

But now what if the war happens? Is Taiwan by any chance capable of defending itself?

Talking about facts, in any military confrontation, China's armed forces would easily be able to power the forces of Taiwan. China spends more than any country after the US on its defense and has a huge range of capabilities, from navy to missile technology, modern military aircraft, and even a large number of ground forces. Much more than anything, China's military power is focused on its active duty personnel which is huge in comparison to that of Taiwan.Comparing all the military assets both of these two countries have, According to some experts Taiwan could at best aim to slow a Chinese attack, and not let them outpower their forces until help from outside (Typically the US) arrives. As we mentioned, the help could come from the US which sells arms to Taiwan. Until now, America’s policy has been unclear about whether or how it would defend Taiwan in the event of an attack. Diplomatically, the US currently sticks to the "One-China" policy, which recognizes only one Chinese government - in Beijing - and has formal ties with China rather than Taiwan.

In simpler words, the US believes that there is only one China, and Taiwan is a different and independent country. But in May, US president Joe Biden appeared to harden Washington's position when he was asked whether the US would defend Taiwan militarily, Mr. Biden replied with a  "Yes." Also, the US has now insisted that Washington had not changed its position and it would still help Taiwan if an attack takes place.

However, this situation between Taiwan and China got even worse after top US Spokesperson 

Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan on the 2nd of August in an American plane. This has been America’s first top visit in the last 25 years in Taiwan. Quite predictably, China is certainly not at all happy with this visit because they have their own valid reasons. As mentioned It is the highest-ranking visit by an American politician to the island in 25 years. In retaliation to this visit, Twenty-seven Chinese warplanes flew into Taiwan's air defense zone on Wednesday 3rd August. However,  China has said that it was just a part of its military drills in the seas just a few Kilometers away from Taiwan's coast which is also among some of the world's busiest waterways.

 Looking at the military threats given by China, Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen said the island of 23 million people would not bow down to China’s threats. He said that despite facing military threats, Taiwan will not back down and will continue to hold the line of defense for the democracy and independence of its people.

What do you think about this? Do you think a military confrontation between China & Taiwan could possibly lead to a third World War? Do mention your thoughts in the comment section below.